AAA holiday travel forecast says travel back to pre-pandemic levels

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It’s safe to say Thanksgiving travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, at least according to AAA’s holiday travel forecast.

This year, the organization projects that 55.4 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday. This is considered the five-day period from Wednesday, Nov. 22, to Sunday, Nov. 26.

AAA’s prediction means about 2.3% more people will be traveling compared with last year. It also marks the third-largest forecast since the organization began tracking holiday travel in 2000.

The top two years for travel were 2005 and 2019.

With Delaware a pass-through state for many headed both north and south, the Delaware Department of Transportation is gearing up for many drivers on the road.

Driving most common mode of transport

As in past years, the largest share of travelers will be those in cars, with a projected 49.1 million Americans traveling this way. That’s a 1.7% increase compared with 2022.

The cost of gas is also predicted to be lower this year than last, too, as prices have steadily decreased in 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving was $3.58, while the national average on Tuesday was $3.35.

In Delaware, gas prices were even lower, with the average on Tuesday at $2.98. New Castle County recorded the highest average of $3, followed by Kent and Sussex with $2.98 and $2.94, respectively.

READ:‘Beats living on the streets:’ The Delawareans who call motels home during the holidays

These prices are even in spite of tensions in the Middle East “causing ripples through the oil market,” AAA said.

Plane, bus, train travel also up

AAA is predicting 4.7 million fliers this year, about 6.6% more than in 2022. This year marks the largest number of Thanksgiving air travelers since 2005.

According to AAA, the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are the busiest air travel days − as well as the most expensive. While AAA says Sunday is typically the busiest day to come home, data also shows Monday is a popular day to return.

But while air travel is up, the percentage increase of people traveling by cruise, bus, and train over Thanksgiving is even higher than the increase in air travel. It’s up nearly 11% over last year.

AAA predicts 1.55 million travelers will take these modes of transportation, which “took a huge hit during the pandemic but have rebounded nicely,” AAA said.

“The cruise industry, in particular, has made a remarkable comeback,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel.

I’m driving. When will traffic be the worst?

Every year, AAA partners with transportation data company INRIX to map out the worst − and better − days to drive. This year isn’t much different than previous ones.

Per usual, most drivers will be hitting the road on Wednesday. In some metro areas, AAA said, average travel times may be 80% higher than usual. The highest volume will be in the later morning into early afternoon, so AAA recommends leaving early or after 6 p.m. to avoid the heaviest holiday congestion.

In Delaware, the Department of Transportation is pausing roadwork that requires temporary lane closed at midnight Tuesday and ending Monday, Nov. 27, at 5 a.m.

Larger projects such as the I-95 and Route 896 construction or the Route 1 and Route 16 will continue construction, however, as some lanes have been shifted to accommodate the road work.

DelDOT spokesperson C.R. McLeod said the agency expects to see “very high traffic” volume as early as this weekend.

As a result, he said, “we try to limit construction-related disruptions as much as possible during the most heavily traveled week of the year.”

Preparing your car and staying safe while traveling

As of Tuesday, Nov. 14, 121 people have died on Delaware roads, McLeod said.

While this is down from 132 at the same time last year, he said road fatalities typically increase now. Nationally, nonfatal crashes are also typically up as more people take to the roads.

Last Thanksgiving travel period − Wednesday to Sunday − Delaware recorded 379 crashes resulting in one person killed.

McLeod said the usual driving tips are still applicable − slow down, buckle up and be patient. As drivers gear up for the holidays, however, he added that they should also check tire pressure, make sure all their lights are working and leave plenty of extra time to get to their destination.

Is it too late to book air travel?

Though the average price for a domestic flight is up 5% from 2022, AAA says, if you’re willing to travel on non-peak days − and especially if you’re willing to travel on Thanksgiving − fares may still be palatable.

Delaware’s only low-cost airline, Avelo, still has tickets to popular destinations such as Miami, Nashville and Tampa for under $100 one-way. And a flight out of the continental U.S. to San Juan, Puerto Rico, is $159.

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